International Trade and Supply Chains: Navigating Fragmentation

Authors

CEDx Research Team

Abstract

Global trade faces significant headwinds in 2025, with the WTO warning of a potential 0.2% decline in world merchandise trade volume. This analysis examines the factors contributing to trade slowdown, including protectionist measures, policy uncertainty, and supply chain vulnerabilities.

Key Findings

• WTO projects 0.2% decline in world merchandise trade volume for 2025
• Commercial services trade growth revised down to 4% from previous expectations
• Global Supply Chain Pressure Index at -0.29, showing gradual improvement
• Geopolitical tensions reshaping trade landscape and supply chain strategies